Laplace’s Delusion. Why the Future Cannot Be Predicted

The rise of machine learning and big data has revived dreams of deterministic future prediction. If humans can’t uncover social dynamics, maybe machines can, by finding patterns to explain human actions. Yet, Futures Studies founders debunked this idea in the 20th century, showing the future is ontologically distinct from the past. Despite this, we fall into Laplace’s fallacy, believing data alone can reveal the future—an illusion rooted in unproven assumptions that threaten human freedom.